{ "as_of": "2026-11-03", "status": "All numerical commercial inputs invented planning assumptions, not quotes, market rates, forecasts, or field results.", "boundary": "Future one-cell inspection operator with bought vehicle; founder chooses partner/leased baseline first. No weapon systems. All costs borne by operator; contractor commissions require additional input.", "common_assumptions": { "currency": "USD", "route_accepted_km": 20, "vessel_day_cost": 4000, "contract_robot_crew_day_cost": 2000, "mobilisation_fixed_cost": 4000, "processing_review_campaign_cost": 4000, "recovery_damage_reserve_campaign": 1000, "owned_vehicle_and_sensor_capex": 300000, "asset_life_years": 3, "residual_value": 0, "annual_cell_insurance_storage_maintenance": 100000, "annual_central_commercial_R_and_D": 500000, "annual_available_field_days": 220, "receivable_days": 90 }, "cases": [ { "name": "low", "price_per_accepted_km": 2000, "capture_km_per_survey_day": 4, "acceptance_yield": 0.8, "weather_standby_days": 2, "mobilisation_days": 2, "annual_campaigns": 6, "survey_days": 7, "total_vessel_and_robot_crew_days": 11, "campaign_revenue": 40000, "campaign_variable_cost": 75000, "campaign_contribution_before_fixed": -35000, "campaign_contribution_margin": -0.875, "annual_revenue": 240000, "annual_field_days": 66, "annual_cash_operating_contribution_before_capex_tax_finance": -810000, "annual_economic_contribution_after_depreciation": -910000.0, "full_company_cost_per_accepted_km": 9583.333333333334, "break_even_campaign_price_at_assumed_volume": 191666.6666666667, "break_even_price_per_accepted_km_at_assumed_volume": 9583.333333333334, "cash_break_even_campaigns": null, "economic_break_even_campaigns": null, "maximum_campaigns_at_assumed_field_days": 20, "trade_receivables_proxy": 59178.08219178082, "starting_cash_capex_plus_receivables_plus_six_month_cash_fixed": 659178.0821917808, "simple_capex_payback_years_if_positive_cash_contribution": null }, { "name": "base", "price_per_accepted_km": 3000, "capture_km_per_survey_day": 8, "acceptance_yield": 0.9, "weather_standby_days": 1, "mobilisation_days": 1, "annual_campaigns": 12, "survey_days": 3, "total_vessel_and_robot_crew_days": 5, "campaign_revenue": 60000, "campaign_variable_cost": 39000, "campaign_contribution_before_fixed": 21000, "campaign_contribution_margin": 0.35, "annual_revenue": 720000, "annual_field_days": 60, "annual_cash_operating_contribution_before_capex_tax_finance": -348000, "annual_economic_contribution_after_depreciation": -448000.0, "full_company_cost_per_accepted_km": 4866.666666666667, "break_even_campaign_price_at_assumed_volume": 97333.33333333334, "break_even_price_per_accepted_km_at_assumed_volume": 4866.666666666667, "cash_break_even_campaigns": 29, "economic_break_even_campaigns": 34, "maximum_campaigns_at_assumed_field_days": 44, "trade_receivables_proxy": 177534.24657534246, "starting_cash_capex_plus_receivables_plus_six_month_cash_fixed": 777534.2465753425, "simple_capex_payback_years_if_positive_cash_contribution": null }, { "name": "high", "price_per_accepted_km": 3500, "capture_km_per_survey_day": 12, "acceptance_yield": 0.95, "weather_standby_days": 0, "mobilisation_days": 1, "annual_campaigns": 24, "survey_days": 2, "total_vessel_and_robot_crew_days": 3, "campaign_revenue": 70000, "campaign_variable_cost": 27000, "campaign_contribution_before_fixed": 43000, "campaign_contribution_margin": 0.6142857142857143, "annual_revenue": 1680000, "annual_field_days": 72, "annual_cash_operating_contribution_before_capex_tax_finance": 432000, "annual_economic_contribution_after_depreciation": 332000.0, "full_company_cost_per_accepted_km": 2808.3333333333335, "break_even_campaign_price_at_assumed_volume": 56166.66666666667, "break_even_price_per_accepted_km_at_assumed_volume": 2808.3333333333335, "cash_break_even_campaigns": 14, "economic_break_even_campaigns": 17, "maximum_campaigns_at_assumed_field_days": 73, "trade_receivables_proxy": 414246.5753424658, "starting_cash_capex_plus_receivables_plus_six_month_cash_fixed": 1014246.5753424658, "simple_capex_payback_years_if_positive_cash_contribution": 0.6944444444444444 } ], "sensitivities_from_base": [ { "change": "price minus 20 percent", "campaign_variable_cost": 39000, "campaign_contribution": 9000, "annual_economic_contribution": -592000.0, "annual_field_days": 60 }, { "change": "price plus 20 percent", "campaign_variable_cost": 39000, "campaign_contribution": 33000, "annual_economic_contribution": -304000.0, "annual_field_days": 60 }, { "change": "one extra standby day", "campaign_variable_cost": 45000, "campaign_contribution": 15000, "annual_economic_contribution": -520000.0, "annual_field_days": 72 }, { "change": "capture throughput halves", "campaign_variable_cost": 57000, "campaign_contribution": 3000, "annual_economic_contribution": -664000.0, "annual_field_days": 96 }, { "change": "acceptance yield falls to 60 percent", "campaign_variable_cost": 51000, "campaign_contribution": 9000, "annual_economic_contribution": -592000.0, "annual_field_days": 84 }, { "change": "annual demand doubles", "campaign_variable_cost": 39000, "campaign_contribution": 21000, "annual_economic_contribution": -196000.0, "annual_field_days": 120 }, { "change": "vessel day cost plus 50 percent", "annual_economic_contribution": -568000.0 }, { "change": "vessel day cost 2x (uncalibrated stress)", "vessel_day_cost": 8000, "campaign_contribution": 1000, "annual_economic_contribution": -688000.0, "economic_break_even_campaigns": 700, "note": "Not a market benchmark. Baseline charter is uncalibrated and potentially optimistic." }, { "change": "vessel day cost 3x (uncalibrated stress)", "vessel_day_cost": 12000, "campaign_contribution": -19000, "annual_economic_contribution": -928000.0, "economic_break_even_campaigns": null, "note": "Not a market benchmark. Baseline charter is uncalibrated and potentially optimistic." }, { "change": "one uninsured vehicle loss plus one base campaign contribution lost", "annual_economic_contribution": -769000.0, "note": "Illustrative incremental cash replacement charge against economic result; not actuarial expected loss or accounting treatment." } ], "exclusions_and_limits": [ "tax", "finance cost", "contractor revenue share or sales commission", "duties and FX", "bespoke dock construction", "extra fleet or staff when capacity exhausted", "catastrophic liability above reserve", "billing delays beyond receivable assumption", "customer churn and seasonal scheduling conflicts" ], "equations": { "survey_days": "ceil(accepted_route_km / (capture_km_per_day * acceptance_yield))", "total_days": "survey_days + weather_standby_days + mobilisation_days", "campaign_variable_cost": "total_days*(vessel_day_cost+contract_robot_crew_day_cost)+mobilisation_fixed_cost+processing_review+recovery_reserve", "campaign_contribution": "accepted_route_km*price_per_accepted_km-campaign_variable_cost", "annual_economic_contribution": "annual_campaigns*campaign_contribution-annual_cash_fixed-depreciation", "economic_break_even_campaigns": "ceil((annual_cash_fixed+depreciation)/campaign_contribution), undefined if contribution <= 0", "receivables_proxy": "annual_revenue*receivable_days/365, steady billing and no customer prepayments assumed" } }