Learning / Case library

Case library

Calibration cases grouped by concept. Each freezes a real business at a decision point, shows the filed numbers, and asks for a forecast before the outcome.

Each concept needs about ten cases that differ from each other, losers included. Each case stores its numbers with a source and a grade, the story told at the time next to what the filings show, and a decision point where you commit before you see what happened.

Concepts

  1. Capital cycle

    Does the capital earn its keep, or does the boom overbuild?

    1 of 10 built

  2. Integrated operator vs marketplace

    Does owning the physical outcome beat brokering it?

    planned

  3. Neutral or rank-blind intermediary

    Can trust be the product, and what pays for it?

    planned

  4. Guarantee and underwriting

    How do you price the risk you absorb without going bankrupt?

    planned

  5. Counter-positioning

    Can the incumbent copy you without hurting itself?

    planned

  6. Platform dependency

    Who can absorb you or cut you off?

    planned

  7. The secret

    Is the contrarian belief true, or just unpopular?

    planned

  8. Start tiny, then expand

    Which first market leads to the large one?

    planned

  9. Distribution as design

    Is there a channel that scales without paid growth?

    planned

  10. Durability

    Is it still earning in 10 to 15 years?

    planned